The only poll that matters

There is simply no way to escape it! If you have been following the presidential race, the p word comes up nearly every day. That p word refers to polls as in presidential polls. The media in their bid to appoint Hillary Clinton to the White House seems to be obsessed with these stupid polls. Sometimes I wonder why even bother having a race between Donald Trump and Clinton. From what I keep on reading in the newspapers, online and watching on television, Clinton has this race completely locked up. She is so far ahead according to some pundits that it will take a miracle for Trump to even prevent a landslide. Well it that were the case, we should all just stay home on election day. Why bother? Furthermore, why even have those debates this fall? Let’s just make Hillary Clinton the next president and the first female president ever. It’s over folks! Well maybe not so fast!

I am absolutely flabbergasted when I hear or read this kind of nonsense. Is this some kind of conspiracy to discourage people to get out and vote for Trump? This race is far from over. I have seen a few polls that indicate this race is nearly a dead heat. The election is still many days away and a lot can happen in that time frame. Furthermore, there a some critical debates between Trump and Clinton that will be critical in determining who will be the next occupant of the White House. I don’t know how anyone can seriously call this race over before the debates even happen. Trump won nearly all of the Republican debates handily and Clinton and her fans have to be extremely nervous about facing Trump in a live debate in front of the American people. Trump will no doubt put Clinton on the defensive about her rather dismal record and that could make things interesting and possibly expose Clinton.

And what about this Wikileaks scandal that could get interesting come October? This could further damage Clinton in this race. What October surprise will there be that people of this organization have promised? Suppose this scandal grows even bigger and Clinton is at the center of it? This scenario also has to cause many restless nights for Clinton and her army.

I pretty much take these polls for granted when I hear about who is in the lead in the latest polls. Who are these pollsters polling anyways? Are they polling the appropriate ratio of Democrats and Republicans in these polls. And how can they determine how many people will actually get out and vote? I have seen several polls to be proven wrong in the past. They are just some unofficial pulse on how a few people feel about some candidates. Even if some candidate is up by 5 points in some poll, that margin can change quickly overnight. On November 8th, millions of Americans will go to the polls to determine the next president. Later on that night, numbers will be released indicating who won the race. That is the only poll that I am concerned about. Those who say this race is over are extremely foolish. The only poll that matters is on November 8th. This race is far from over. I believe it will be an extremely tight one.

 

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2 thoughts on “The only poll that matters

  1. You could well be right, that it will be close in the popular vote. But we don’t elect by popular vote. You could have millions of hard-core Trump supporters in CA, but the entire 55 votes will still be awarded to Clinton. At least 40 of the 50 states are “safe” for one or the other major party, because voting patterns don’t flip rapidly. The safe states have voted the same way for decades. Professional pollsters get no benefit if they get it wrong, so I don’t think they are making up the numbers. She’s ahead in most swing states. That makes it statistically unlikely that he can win. That’s not forcing anyone’s vote, just reflecting where sampled voters are right now. The math is what it is.

  2. You make a good point about the electoral college, Mikey. Presidential races usually come down to about 5 states and who can carry them. A Republican nominee almost has to carry all of them to have any chance of winning. According to the polls, Clinton does have a slight advantage in nearly all of them, thus she would win in a landslide. However, this race is way too close right now to say that Trump has absolute no chance of winning. I would say that Hillary has about a 55 percent chance of winning; just my gut feeling. I don’t think even a huge October surprise can stop her from being the first woman president. The real mystery that I find about this election is how much support does Trump really have around the country. Perhaps he has far more or less than anyone knows.

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